Finance1 min read

Gold Price Prediction: After 20% crash, Gold may rise 20–25% by Dhanteras 2027; check price forecast - Buy or wait?

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In short

Domestic gold has retreated toward ₹1.42 lakh per 10 grams after previously reaching ₹1.80 lakh per 10 grams alongside global highs of $5,595 per ounce in January 2026. This slide was accelerated by shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations and geopolitical inflation worries involving Iran, Israel, and the U.S. However, analysts believe persistent central bank purchases and massive ETF inflows will drive prices upward, potentially lifting domestic values to ₹1.71 lakh per 10 grams.

Key points

  • Axis Securities recommends staggered buying with expectations that prices will rise betwe…: Axis Securities recommends staggered buying with expectations that prices will rise between 20% and 25% by Dhanteras 2027.
  • Religare Broking advises accumulating gold between ₹1.30 lakh and ₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams…: Religare Broking advises accumulating gold between ₹1.30 lakh and ₹1.35 lakh per 10 grams for upside targets reaching ₹1.58 lakh.
  • High interest rates, strong dollar valuations, and regional geopolitical tensions continu…: High interest rates, strong dollar valuations, and regional geopolitical tensions continue to present downside risks to market recovery.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Gold price outlook: Gold prices have corrected sharply from their record highs, but the decline may be creating a fresh opportunity for investors looking to add the precious metal to their portfolios. With domestic prices hovering around ₹1.42 lakh per 10 grams, experts see scope for further gains over the coming year, although their projections differ. Axis Securities sees gold prices rising up to 25% by next Dhanteras.

Continued central bank buying, renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and the possibility of easing monetary conditions could support the recovery. However, elevated interest rates, a stronger US dollar and geopolitical uncertainty remain important risks.

Axis Securities, meanwhile, believes the correction of more than 20% from gold's peak has improved the entry opportunity for long-term investors. It also highlighted the importance of central bank demand in supporting the metal's longer-term prospects.

"Annual central bank purchases have remained around 1,000 tonnes in recent years, providing structural support to gold prices. Given the prevailing geopolitical uncertainties, sustained central bank demand could continue to underpin the bullish case for gold in 2027," Axis Securities said.

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