Domestic bullion posted a 12.87% advance between Diwali 2025 and Diwali 2026, moderating sharply from a massive 60.21% gain during the 2024–2025 period. Spot international gold initially surged nearly 30% to touch a historic high of $5,595 per ounce on January 29 before retreating on policy developments. Historical data from Motilal Oswal reveals that gold typically yields stronger performance during the 30 days preceding Diwali than in the month following it. Long-term trajectories remain reliant on international economic conditions despite festive domestic buying.
Key points
Global gold values faced strong downward pressure after Kevin Warsh was nominated to lead…: Global gold values faced strong downward pressure after Kevin Warsh was nominated to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The precious metal has grown steadily from about Rs 30,000 in 2016 to nearly Rs 1.50 lakh…: The precious metal has grown steadily from about Rs 30,000 in 2016 to nearly Rs 1.50 lakh in 2026.
Gold historically demonstrates higher returns in the month preceding Diwali compared to t…: Gold historically demonstrates higher returns in the month preceding Diwali compared to the month directly following the festival.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Gold and silver have entered the Diwali 2026 season after an extraordinary 10 months, and this journey has been significantly more volatile than 2025.
Buying gold on Dhanteras is considered auspicious in many traditions. But the festive season comes at a time when gold prices have seen sharp corrections in recent months. Does that mean that gold has lost its glitter as an investment bet? Or are the current dips the right entry point?
Beyond the festive season demand, gold continues to be a strong investment option and an important portfolio diversifier, say analysts.
What do historical returns on gold suggest and what’s the outlook for the next Samvat? We take a look:
Gold vs Nifty returns over last 5 years from Diwali to Diwali
Historically, gold has generally performed better in the 30 days before Diwali than in the month that follows the festival period, according to a Motilal Oswal analysis. In fact, over the past 10 years, pre-Diwali returns were negative in 2016 and 2021, but the performance during the run-up to the festival has consistently outpaced post-Diwali…
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