The October-December quarter is experiencing a seasonal revival in demand after high prices and an import duty hike dampened sales earlier this year. Crisil Ratings found that customer traffic is climbing among 76 organized retailers, supported by gold prices retreating from peaks above $5,500 to briefly under $4,000 an ounce. Refiners and jewelers report stronger interest in smaller gold coins, bars, and lower-carat pieces. Despite this holiday momentum, the World Gold Council expects annual import totals to fall to a six-year low.
Key points
The seasonal demand rebound is unlikely to completely offset the volume deficits accumula…: The seasonal demand rebound is unlikely to completely offset the volume deficits accumulated earlier in the year.
Consumers are actively managing budgets by choosing lighter-weight jewelry alongside lowe…: Consumers are actively managing budgets by choosing lighter-weight jewelry alongside lower-purity options like 18-, 14-, and 9-karat gold.
Full-year gold imports into India are currently projected by the World Gold Council to hi…: Full-year gold imports into India are currently projected by the World Gold Council to hit a six-year low.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Footfalls are rising in the October-December quarter, and a higher proportion of visitors are making purchases, according to Crisil Ratings. Its analysis covers 76 organised retailers that account for about a third of industry revenue.
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The recovery follows a subdued year for gold buying in the world’s second-largest consumer of the metal. Demand was hit by a steep increase in import duty, which was raised to 15% in May, while a surge in gold prices pushed retail rates to record levels and deterred purchases.
Gold has since retreated from its peak, briefly dipping below $4,000 an ounce after topping $5,500 earlier this year, improving affordability at the margin and encouraging consumers to return to the market ahead of the key festive and wedding season.
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