S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slid alongside the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index as traders reacted to political betting odds pricing an 86% to 98% chance of Democrats winning both congressional chambers. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropped four basis points to 4.92% as the greenback broadly depreciated. Concurrently, markets absorbed resilient September U.S. labor data, which highlighted a four-month high in job openings alongside falling layoffs, potentially keeping Federal Reserve inflation concerns elevated.
Key points
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket reflect overwhelming odds of Democrats sweeping…: Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket reflect overwhelming odds of Democrats sweeping the Senate and House.
Resilient September employment data, including fewer layoffs and higher quit rates, may k…: Resilient September employment data, including fewer layoffs and higher quit rates, may keep the Federal Reserve focused on inflation.
Crude oil prices saw volatile action as Washington and Tehran evaluated fresh mediation p…: Crude oil prices saw volatile action as Washington and Tehran evaluated fresh mediation proposals following overnight airstrikes.
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Contracts for the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.3%, erasing an initial gain of 0.5%, while those for the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.6%. The dollar dropped against most of its Group-of-10 peers and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell four basis points to 4.92%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.2% even as South Korea’s Kospi Index jumped 1%.
Millions of Americans cast ballots Tuesday in races that will determine control of Congress as well as a range of local issues. The first polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern time.
Kalshi is pricing roughly a 97% probability of Democrats taking the House of Representatives and about an 86% chance of winning the Senate, pointing to the possibility of a sweep of both chambers.
“Early headlines and prediction markets are suggesting a rising probability of a blue wave,” said Andrew Ticehurst, a senior rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. “That scenario is generally regarded as being negative for the dollar and positive for US Treasuries. Markets are reacting consistently with…
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