Finance1 min read

Global Market: Chinese yuan hits four-year high, heads for fourth straight monthly gain

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The onshore exchange rate has advanced roughly 5% against the dollar this year, supported by consistent central bank guidance and a rising CFETS trade-weighted basket index. In tandem, offshore trading has strengthened as corporate dollar conversions accelerate alongside broader weakness in the U.S. dollar index. Regional sentiment also absorbed the Bank of Japan's move to hold rates steady while signaling future borrowing cost hikes. Analysts anticipate the currency's overall appreciation will endure, even if persistent U.S. growth briefly tempers its momentum.

Key points

  • Chinese central bank officials appear comfortable permitting the yuan to sustain its broa…: Chinese central bank officials appear comfortable permitting the yuan to sustain its broader appreciation trajectory.
  • Weakness in the dollar index stems partly from declining U.S. Treasury yields and tech-se…: Weakness in the dollar index stems partly from declining U.S. Treasury yields and tech-sector market declines.
  • Regional currency markets are adjusting to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates stead…: Regional currency markets are adjusting to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates steady while forecasting upcoming borrowing cost increases.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The onshore yuan opened at 6.6600 per dollar and was trading at 6.6590 as of 0240 GMT, its strongest level since June 6, 2022. The currency was 22 pips firmer than its previous late-session close and has appreciated around 5% against the dollar so far this year.

Read more: Global Market Today: Asian stocks slide as tech earnings disappoint, AI fears mount

According to Reuters, exporters have continued converting their dollar holdings into yuan and increasing currency hedging as the Chinese currency strengthens. A firmer yuan reduces the domestic-currency value of exporters' dollar earnings, encouraging them to sell dollars and convert the proceeds into local currency, adding further upward pressure on the exchange rate.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), meanwhile, set its daily midpoint rate at 6.7138 per dollar before the market opened, its strongest fixing since February 2023. The fixing was 590 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate. China's onshore yuan is permitted to trade within a 2% range on either side of the daily midpoint.

The steady strengthening of the daily fixing suggests that Chinese policymakers have…

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