More than $47 million was traded across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket on the Los Angeles mayoral primary, where markets mistakenly gave Spencer Pratt a 78% chance of advancing. Pratt ultimately placed third, leading his backers to leverage the inaccurate odds to question election integrity. Officials like Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder Dean Logan cautioned against viewing betting platforms as authoritative sources over real ballots. This dynamic is exacerbated by large individual trades that skew odds, such as a single $1.25 million bet that altered prices for hours.
Key points
Election officials warn that public reliance on unscientific betting odds can fuel false…: Election officials warn that public reliance on unscientific betting odds can fuel false claims of election fraud when actual results diverge.
Prediction platforms are vulnerable to sharp artificial price swings caused by wealthy in…: Prediction platforms are vulnerable to sharp artificial price swings caused by wealthy individual traders placing massive speculative bets.
Passive viewership on election betting exchanges vastly outpaces active trading, amplifyi…: Passive viewership on election betting exchanges vastly outpaces active trading, amplifying the reach of potentially manipulated market data.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Spencer Pratt appeared to be a shoo-in to win the June primary in the Los Angeles mayor's race, based on millions of dollars wagered on prediction markets aiming to call the race.
Pratt was an unlikely candidate for mayor. The former reality TV star had never held elective office, but after the Palisades fire destroyed his home, he turned his criticism of the city's response into a campaign rallying cry.
Using prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket U.S. and Polymarket International, speculators flocked to the race, which drew more than $47 million in trades, making it the most heavily traded mayoral contest of 2026. On the eve of the June primary, one market gave Pratt a 78% chance of advancing to the November runoff.
The prediction markets were wildly off base, and Pratt finished third.
Pratt supporters, though, used the failed speculation to cast doubt on the integrity of the election. That drew a response from the city: "Prediction markets can add to that confusion when people treat their projections as more authoritative than the actual votes being counted," Dean Logan,…
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