Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces mounting public debt, persistently high interest rates, rising household indebtedness and political hurdles to economic reforms as he prepares to begin his fourth term in January, despite the economy performing better than expected in recent years.
Lula’s victory over conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday’s presidential runoff has secured another term for the left-wing leader. However, growing fiscal pressures and a conservative-led Congress could complicate efforts to implement his economic agenda.
According to a Reuters report by Marcela Ayres and Bernardo Caram, Lula will have to navigate five major economic challenges, ranging from controlling government borrowing and inflation to implementing a sweeping tax overhaul.
1. Rising public debt and fiscal pressure
Brazil’s public debt has increased by more than 10 percentage points during Lula’s current term, surpassing 82% of gross domestic product (GDP) and pushing up borrowing costs.
Years of rising mandatory expenditure have left the federal government with limited flexibility in its budget, with less than 8% of spending available for adjustments.
Lula has sent mixed signals on fiscal discipline, at times dismissing concerns about public debt as “nonsense” while arguing that stronger economic growth would help address the problem.
His administration has pledged to retain the existing fiscal framework, which limits spending growth and establishes targets for the primary balance, or government revenue minus expenditure excluding interest payments on public debt. Officials have also indicated that the rules could be tightened.
However, meeting these targets could prove difficult as Lula has promised to increase the minimum wage faster than inflation. Such increases also raise pension expenditure, adding to the cost of welfare benefits that his government has already expanded.
2. High interest rates and persistent inflation
Brazil continues to face elevated borrowing costs and inflationary pressures despite signs of an economic slowdown.
Interest rates stand at 13.75%, while annual inflation is 4.6%, above the central bank’s tolerance range of 1.5% to 4.5%. The central bank delivered its fifth consecutive rate cut last month as economic activity showed signs of weakening.
However, financial markets expect inflation to remain above the official 3% target until as late as 2029.
Lula has pledged to bring interest rates down through greater fiscal discipline while protecting social programmes. Economists, however, argue that faster rate reductions would require cuts in government spending.
Balancing lower borrowing costs with continued social expenditure will therefore be a key challenge for the incoming administration.
3. Mounting debt among households and businesses
High interest rates have also increased the financial burden on Brazilian households and businesses, with a record number of borrowers falling behind on repayments.
According to credit bureau Serasa, nearly 84 million Brazilians and 9.3 million businesses are behind on debt payments.
The growing debt burden has fuelled public dissatisfaction despite favourable economic indicators, including record-low unemployment and wage growth outpacing inflation.
Lula plans to introduce another round of debt relief, including discounted purchases of distressed household loans from banks and tax debt forgiveness for some small business owners.
However, analysts have cautioned that such measures may provide only temporary relief without addressing the underlying causes of indebtedness.
The government has also discussed with the central bank ways to curb excessive reliance on easily available but expensive credit, including credit cards and unsecured consumer loans. No detailed proposals have been announced so far.
4. Conservative Congress could obstruct reforms
Lula is likely to face difficulties securing congressional support for his economic agenda after voters elected the most conservative legislature since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s.
Although Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and its allies are expected to control both chambers of Congress.
The political balance could complicate efforts to reduce tax breaks and introduce other fiscal measures. Lula’s aides have indicated that the government will continue seeking to curtail tax exemptions, but lawmakers have repeatedly resisted proposals that increase the effective tax burden.
During his current term, Lula has also struggled to secure Senate approval for nominees to key institutions, including the Supreme Court, central bank, securities regulator and antitrust watchdog.
The rightward shift in Congress could make such appointments and other legislative priorities more difficult to advance during his fourth term.
5. Uncertainty over sweeping tax reforms
Lula secured congressional approval in 2023 for a major overhaul of Brazil’s consumption tax system, with a new value-added tax scheduled to take effect in January.
However, with fewer than three months remaining before implementation, the government has yet to disclose the effective tax rate. Independent analysts estimate that it could be around 28%.
The administration has also delayed submitting legislation to regulate a new tax on products considered harmful to public health or the environment, including cigarettes and alcohol.
The delay, partly driven by concerns about a public backlash during the election campaign, could postpone revenue collection from the proposed levy and has drawn criticism over the government’s handling of tax policy.
Implementing the consumption tax overhaul while resolving outstanding questions over rates and additional levies will be another major test for Lula’s administration as it seeks to balance revenue generation, economic growth and household affordability.