Finance1 min read

Fed holds rates, says data will guide next move

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In short

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to pause interest rate hikes, defying earlier market pricing that indicated a greater than 70% probability of an increase. Dissenting officials favored a quarter-percentage-point raise amid persistent economic expansion driven by AI investment and consumer demand. Policymakers will soon evaluate fresh data when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the September personal consumption expenditures price index and third-quarter growth figures, which economists forecast will show a 3.2% annualized expansion.

Key points

  • Policymakers chose to pause borrowing cost increases despite earlier market expectations…: Policymakers chose to pause borrowing cost increases despite earlier market expectations heavily favoring a rate hike.
  • Future policy moves will depend on incoming data regarding elevated inflation and ongoing…: Future policy moves will depend on incoming data regarding elevated inflation and ongoing strong economic activity.
  • Markets maintained positive momentum with both Treasury yields and the S&P 500 trading hi…: Markets maintained positive momentum with both Treasury yields and the S&P 500 trading higher after the vote.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.75% to 4%. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, preferring to raise rates by a quarter percentage point.

The decision to hold rates comes less than a week before the November midterm elections. Amid widespread discontent over the economy, Democrats are favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives and have a polling edge in several key races for the Senate.

The S&P 500 and Treasury yields remained higher following the decision. Fed chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference in Washington. He is likely to be pressed to explain the Fed's decision not to raise rates despite price pressures and signs of a strong economy.

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