Finance3 min read

Fed chairman talks tough on inflation — plus, what's behind Micron's big rally

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The Federal Reserve paused its policy adjustments at its October meeting to assess incoming data, even as two officials voted to raise rates and the chairman reaffirmed a strict 2% inflation mandate. In the markets, memory chipmakers advanced significantly after SK Hynix projected persistent supply deficits and boosted capital returns. Investors are preparing for further volatility with upcoming earnings from firms like Alphabet and Microsoft, paired with Thursday's release of the third-quarter gross domestic product estimate and the September personal consumption expenditures price index.

Key points

  • Market pricing currently reflects odds above 80% for the Federal Reserve to implement an…: Market pricing currently reflects odds above 80% for the Federal Reserve to implement an interest rate increase in December.
  • Memory demand outstripping supply has driven sustained positive momentum for major semico…: Memory demand outstripping supply has driven sustained positive momentum for major semiconductor producers like Micron and SK Hynix.
  • Upcoming prints of the personal consumption expenditures price index and gross domestic p…: Upcoming prints of the personal consumption expenditures price index and gross domestic product will provide critical direction for economic policy.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stocks are pretty much flat — down a bit from where they were before the Federal Reserve ended its two-day October meeting by holding interest rates steady Wednesday afternoon. The target range for short-term rates remains 3.75% to 4%. The policy statement said that "inflation remains elevated," but the Fed wants more information before taking further action. There were two dissenters who wanted to see a rate hike. The Fed increased the overnight lending rate for the first time in three years in September. During his post-meeting news conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated that 2% — nothing higher — is the central bank's target rate on inflation. "There is no soft inflation target," he stressed. The market odds of a rate hike in December — both before and after the Fed news — remained at more than 80%. Warsh also said the Fed will reduce the number of rate-setting meetings in coming years. Memory and storage stocks are rallying after SK Hynix reported soaring quarterly revenue and operating profit, as well as larger capital returns plans. Management said that demand in memory is expected to continue to outpace supply. Shares of the South Korean company that trade in the United States are up more than 12.5%. Shares of U.S.-based rival Micron are up nearly 6%, extending their winning streak to four straight sessions. While about 19% lower than its record high close of $1,213 back in June, the stock is still up 240% year to date. Apple's rolling product launches continue . On Wednesday, Club name Apple released its first touchscreen laptop, reversing years of saying it would not do so. The new touchscreen MacBook Pro models are the third major product launch since John Ternus became CEO on Sept. 1. Like the iPhone Duo in relation to the iPhone 18 Pro models, the new laptops will be at a higher price point (starting at $2,899) than the new non-touchscreen MacBook Pro 14-inch with the newest M6 chip (starting at $1,999). It's a busy night of earnings, with Club names Alphabet , Microsoft , and FedEx at the top of the list. Other notable companies reporting include Ford, T-Mobile, Carvana, Honeywell Aerospace, MGM Resorts, ServiceNow, eBay, Chipotle, and Fortinet. Before the open, portfolio holdings Eli Lilly and Linde are out with quarterly results. Others include Caterpillar, Merck, and Bristol Myers. On the economic data side of things, Thursday morning brings the September PCE price index and the first read on third-quarter GDP. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Original source: www.cnbc.com

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