The stratospheric polar vortex is weakening significantly over the next ten days during a period when it normally gains strength. Although this atmospheric shift can eventually push freezing Arctic air into mid-latitude regions like northern Europe, severe cold remains unlikely for at least two to three weeks. In the short term, severe weather is concentrated in southern Europe as a deep low-pressure system delivers heavy rain and high winds to Italy. More than 100mm of rain is expected across higher ground in southern Italy within 24 hours before the storm moves toward Greece.
Key points
A disruption of the polar vortex can drive Arctic air southwards, raising the probability…: A disruption of the polar vortex can drive Arctic air southwards, raising the probability of cold conditions in northern Europe weeks later.
Severe cold weather is considered unlikely across northern Europe over the next two to th…: Severe cold weather is considered unlikely across northern Europe over the next two to three weeks despite the polar disruption.
A deepening Mediterranean storm system is tracking eastward toward Greece after impacting…: A deepening Mediterranean storm system is tracking eastward toward Greece after impacting central and southern Italy on Monday.
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The stratospheric polar vortex over the northern hemisphere is facing the prospect of an unusually early weakening. Forecast models suggest it could weaken significantly over the next 10 days, when it would typically be strengthening.
A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is possible. This could influence weather patterns in the following weeks, increasing the likelihood of persistent areas of high pressure across the mid-latitudes and colder conditions weeks later.
The polar vortex is a large area of low pressure and cold air high above the Arctic. It weakens during the summer before strengthening during autumn and into winter. Its strong anticlockwise circulation helps contain the coldest air near the pole, although disturbances can allow colder air to spill southwards into the mid-latitudes.
A SSW event occurs when temperatures high in the stratosphere rise rapidly, often by as much as 50C in just a few days. This is associated with a dramatic weakening, or even reversal, of the strong westerly winds surrounding the polar vortex, disrupting its circulation. The earliest recorded major SSW, occurred on 28 November 1968, after records…
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