US diplomats are preparing for embassy evacuations. Israeli fighter jets are conducting sorties on the Iranian border. The mood among Arab and US officials in the region who spoke to Middle East Eye is that it’s a question of when, not if, the US and Israel resume attacking Iran.
With Iran threatening to retaliate by bombing trillions of dollars worth of US-linked data centres and AI facilities in the Gulf, along with energy installations and airports, the stage seems set for round two of the war.
“An escalation is coming. Whether it’s before the US midterms or after is not relevant. The purpose of the escalation is,” Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic US presidents, told MEE.
Direct fighting between the US and Iran largely stopped after the signing of a fragile ceasefire in April, but the two never implemented a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June to advance a settlement.
The agreement was widely seen as giving Iran sweeping concessions that experts say the Trump administration simply cannot stomach.
Trump's emissaries are laying the ground for a return to fighting.
Read more: 'Escalation is coming': Middle East on edge as new Israeli-US attack on Iran looms