Finance1 min read

Dollar sellers hit pause for US inflation data

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The greenback recently lost ground as currencies like the euro, the Australian dollar, and sterling advanced on renewed risk appetite. Market participants are now bracing for October inflation figures, with headline prices projected to hit 3.9% year-on-year. Official figures also confirmed that Japanese authorities spent $97 billion between late July and August to defend the yen. Meanwhile, robust labor data continues to anchor high market expectations for an impending interest rate increase.

Key points

  • Financial markets are currently pricing an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will…: Financial markets are currently pricing an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.
  • A blowout October employment report that doubled hiring forecasts significantly altered i…: A blowout October employment report that doubled hiring forecasts significantly altered investor expectations for future rate hikes.
  • Lingering volatility in artificial intelligence stocks and potential regulatory shifts fr…: Lingering volatility in artificial intelligence stocks and potential regulatory shifts from a Democratic congressional sweep have clouded the growth outlook.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

A tumble in oil prices and gains overnight for stocks had knocked the dollar lower as investors rotated back into riskier assets.

The trade and sentiment-sensitive Australian dollar rose by nearly 1% through Monday to sit at $0.6921 early on Tuesday and the New Zealand dollar rose even further to trade at $0.5624, with both steady in morning Asia trade.

The euro jumped 0.7% overnight to $1.1220, reversing a Friday fall when strong US jobs data lifted the dollar and interest rate expectations, and putting the euro/dollar pair roughly into the middle of a range it has held for a month.

Read more: India VIX jumps 68% in three weeks despite 7% rally in Sensex, Nifty

The market is long dollars and the dollar index has gained this year as early expectations for US interest rate cuts quickly turned to bets on hikes after the US-Israeli war on Iran drove up energy prices and fuelled inflation.

A blowout October jobs report on Friday, with hiring more than twice forecasts, has markets pricing an 85% chance of a Federal Reserve rate…

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