Finance1 min read

Dollar rises to 19-month high as Fed hike bets grow, yen softens

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In short

Hotter-than-expected October inflation data and hawkish central bank rhetoric have pushed institutions like Goldman Sachs to forecast additional interest rate increases in December and early next year. This monetary tightening outlook is widening policy divergences globally, putting acute downward pressure on the Japanese yen as domestic policymakers resist raising their own borrowing costs. The Japanese currency retreated toward 160 per dollar after dovish Bank of Japan board member Toichiro Asada cautioned against premature rate hikes that could damage economic growth. Meanwhile, Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated to 7.1 percent in October, yet verbal intervention warnings from top o…

Key points

  • Anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in December and early next year conti…: Anticipation of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in December and early next year continues to fuel broad greenback strength.
  • Bank of Japan resistance to near-term monetary tightening leaves the yen vulnerable despi…: Bank of Japan resistance to near-term monetary tightening leaves the yen vulnerable despite rising wholesale price pressures.
  • Mixed performances across major currencies saw the euro advance slightly while the Britis…: Mixed performances across major currencies saw the euro advance slightly while the British pound and New Zealand dollar posted losses.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

TOKYO, Nov 12 : The dollar climbed to a 19-month high against major peers on Thursday, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while the yen edged toward the key 160-per-dollar level following a dovish central banker's speech.

Traders ramped up bets on further Fed tightening after stronger-than-expected October inflation data and a series of hawkish remarks from US central bank officials, who expressed concern over stubborn inflation and left open the possibility of a larger 50-basis-point increase.

Some major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, now expect another hike early next year, in addition to one in December.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose by 0.15 per cent to 103.02, the highest since April 2025.

New York Fed President John Williams is set to appear on a panel late Thursday that will be closely watched given his "pre-October FOMC meeting views the Fed had time on rate hikes," said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank, in a note.

"Fast forward two weeks and following a hotter-than-forecast October CPI…

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