Finance1 min read

Dollar holds, yen gains as equity rout saps risk appetite ahead of payrolls

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The pronounced downturn in equities, highlighted by the Nasdaq's steepest slide since April 2025, sent yields on two-year and 10-year Treasuries sharply lower. This bond market rally curbed dollar strength while lifting the yen to a one-week high and bolstering the Swiss franc. Currency markets also absorbed a modest rise in sterling following a Bank of England interest rate hike. All eyes are now trained on the upcoming non-farm payrolls data to clarify the economic backdrop.

Key points

  • Political developments in Congress and emerging regulatory worries regarding artificial i…: Political developments in Congress and emerging regulatory worries regarding artificial intelligence infrastructure prompted widespread market de-risking.
  • Traders lowered the implied probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to roughl…: Traders lowered the implied probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 70%.
  • Crucial non-farm payrolls data will serve as the primary catalyst for the next major shif…: Crucial non-farm payrolls data will serve as the primary catalyst for the next major shift in interest rate expectations.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The trigger for the retreat from risk was a Democratic sweep in Congress that hammered US stocks on Thursday, with the Nasdaq recording its deepest one-day drop since "Liberation Day" in April 2025.

Fears of tighter scrutiny of the artificial intelligence industry, particularly around data centre construction, has roiled global markets this week.

The equity rout prompted investors to find shelter in bonds and haven currencies. The yen strengthened 0.2% to a one-week high of 157.40 a US dollar before reversing some of that gain.

The Swiss franc firmed 0.2% against the US currency. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was roughly flat at 101.55.

"The AI selloff is creating competing forces for the dollar," OCBC analysts said. "Falling US yields are blunting the dollar's safe-haven appeal, leaving the yen as the standout hedge against more US-centric volatility, while flows from Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund could provide another tailwind for the yen."

The flight to safety drove the 10-year Treasury yield down overnight. It was last trading at 4.84% in the Asian morning, near its…

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