Finance1 min read

Dollar gains as hot inflation, hawkish Fed talk lift rate-hike bets

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In short

Traders using the CME FedWatch Tool have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate increase for December, with some anticipating a potential 50-basis-point adjustment. The shift in market sentiment followed October consumer prices exceeding forecasts for a third consecutive month, prompting major brokerages like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to project multiple upcoming hikes. The resulting strength pushed the greenback near a two-week high, pressuring rivals such as the euro after German inflation showed signs of cooling.

Key points

  • Accelerating consumer prices across three consecutive months have reinforced institutiona…: Accelerating consumer prices across three consecutive months have reinforced institutional expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes through early next year.
  • Safe-haven demand linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to provide fundamental s…: Safe-haven demand linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to provide fundamental support for the greenback against global counterparts.
  • The Japanese yen faces renewed pressure near the 160-per-dollar threshold as widening mon…: The Japanese yen faces renewed pressure near the 160-per-dollar threshold as widening monetary policy gaps favor the American currency.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Nov 11 : The dollar rose against most currencies on Wednesday, extending gains after inflation data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials a day earlier fuelled bets that the US central bank will raise interest rates next month.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was 0.2 per cent higher at 102.4, closing in on a high not seen in about two weeks.

The gauge traded up 0.5 per cent on Tuesday after data showed US consumer prices increased by more than expected in October amid higher costs for food and accommodations, marking a third consecutive month of upside surprises.

"The dollar has continued to have some broad-based support on the expectation that the Fed would be more aggressive in their monetary tightening," said Rory Glass, an FX dealer at Marex in London.

The euro depreciated slightly to $1.114, extending losses after a fall of more than 0.5 per cent on Tuesday. Data on Wednesday showed German inflation slowed to 2.8 per cent in October, confirming a preliminary reading.

The pound…

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