Finance1 min read

Dollar edges lower as US election outcome cheers global markets

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The dollar index retreated to 101.41 following the congressional sweep, even as domestic private payrolls expanded by 86,000 to beat October forecasts. International currencies rallied, with the yen strengthening to 158.25 after the Bank of Japan signaled further monetary tightening following its September rate hike. Meanwhile, the British pound extended its winning streak toward a sixth consecutive day ahead of an anticipated Bank of England policy move. Despite the dollar's broad decline, investors maintain strong expectations for an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.

Key points

  • Democratic majorities in the Senate and House eased market fears of contested election re…: Democratic majorities in the Senate and House eased market fears of contested election results and reduced concerns over strikes on Iran.
  • Foreign currencies including the euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar gained g…: Foreign currencies including the euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar gained ground alongside digital assets like bitcoin and ether.
  • Financial markets priced in an 81.2% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest…: Financial markets priced in an 81.2% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points in December.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The yen firmed after minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting reinforced expectations for further interest rate hikes, while sterling held near a seven-week high ahead of a Bank of England policy decision expected to deliver another rate increase.

Democrats swept to sizable majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, easing concerns about contested results and spurring gains in US Treasuries and equities around the world. The election result raises prospects of political gridlock in Washington and lowers expectations that US President Donald Trump will resume military strikes against Iran, said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"A lot of the market moves that we're seeing, particularly in bonds, I think can be traced directly to that, as well as a weaker dollar on the back of lower Treasury yields," Attrill said on a podcast.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.06% to 101.41, after a 0.36% decline in the prior session. The euro was up 0.12% at $1.1241.

The yen strengthened 0.08% to 158.25 per dollar.

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