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Diwali 2026: Will Sensex, Nifty reclaim their peaks or scale new highs? Analysts map the road ahead

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The recent downturn has pulled key benchmarks down roughly 9% year-to-date, allowing valuations to drift below their historical averages. Analysts expect future market advances to rely heavily on bottom-up corporate operational efficiency and resilient earnings rather than surplus liquidity. Domestic capital expenditure and potential foreign portfolio reversals could further aid recovery, though volatile crude oil prices and global interest rate trajectories remain persistent risks.

Key points

  • Valuation contractions have brought the Nifty to trade near 17 times its 12-month forward…: Valuation contractions have brought the Nifty to trade near 17 times its 12-month forward earnings.
  • Market returns are shifting away from broad liquidity toward company-specific operational…: Market returns are shifting away from broad liquidity toward company-specific operational efficiency and earnings performance.
  • External challenges including elevated crude oil prices and shifting global interest rate…: External challenges including elevated crude oil prices and shifting global interest rates could slow market recovery.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

A combination of resilient corporate earnings, more reasonable valuations, sustained domestic institutional inflows, improving private capital expenditure and India's robust macroeconomic fundamentals is expected to support the next leg of the market rally, analysts said. However, the road ahead may not be entirely smooth, with elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical uncertainties, global inflation and interest rate movements likely to influence investor sentiment.

The optimism comes after a period of relative underperformance for Indian equities, which has also brought valuations down from their earlier elevated levels, offering investors a potentially more favourable entry point. Notably, the Nifty and Sensex have declined by over 8% over the past year, while both indices are down nearly 9% year-to-date (YTD). At current levels of 23,810, the Nifty is around 10% below its record high of 26,373, while the Sensex, at 76,917, is down approximately 11% from its peak of 86,159.

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