NMDC's second-quarter EBITDA for financial year 2026-27 slipped 3% year-on-year to ₹19.4 billion, pressured by elevated premiums, higher royalty expenses, and reduced sales volumes. Despite these quarterly hurdles prompting a cut to near-term forecasts, Nuvama set a 12-month target price of ₹100 per share. The projection relies on an anticipated volume recovery in the second half of the fiscal year alongside normalized logistics. Additionally, the public sector undertaking provides steady investor returns, supported by a 25-year track record of regular dividend payouts.
Key points
Nuvama projects a potential 42% upside for NMDC based on nine times projected average ear…: Nuvama projects a potential 42% upside for NMDC based on nine times projected average earnings across FY28 and FY29.
Operational volumes are anticipated to stage a recovery throughout the second half of fin…: Operational volumes are anticipated to stage a recovery throughout the second half of financial year 2026-27.
Persistent market pressure has led to stock declines of 2.17% over the past month and 17.…: Persistent market pressure has led to stock declines of 2.17% over the past month and 17.74% over three months.
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Shares of PSU ended marginally lower on Friday, November 13, reversing all its gains made over the previous sessions in the week. Volatility in the PSU stock coincided with the announcement of second quarter results for the financial year 2026-27.
The government-backed iron ore mining giant is likely to see an uptick in volume in the second half of financial year 2026-27 as supplies have now normalised after monsoon-led logistic disruption, according to Nuvama which sees nearly 42% upside potential in the stock.
NMDC share price outlook
NMDC reported lower-than-expected second quarter EBITDA of ₹19.4 billion, which is down 3% on an annual basis. However, EBITDA/t was marginally lower by ₹17/t on an annual basis to ₹1,853, weighed by higher royalty and premium cost and lower sales volume, noted Nuvama in its report. The brokerage also reduced its FY27 EBITDA by nearly 8% to factor in the performance in the first half of FY27.
NMDC share price target
Nuvama maintained a ‘Buy’ rating for the stock with a target price of ₹100 per share for a period of 12 months.…
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