Report: Despite Iran's Attacks, Gulf Oil Exports Exceed Prewar Levels
Commodity intelligence firm Kpler reports that oil flows out of the Arabian Gulf have rebounded so well that they now exceed levels seen before the start of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. By Kpler's count, the GCC states are now moving about 24 million barrels per day out of the region, including volumes transported by overland pipeline.
The resurgence can be attributed in large part to the U.S.-protected shipping lane through the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz, which is now moving about 14 million barrels per day of crude oil, despite the constant risk of Iranian attack. The hazard level is high, but day rates are as well, and strong earnings have attracted a growing number of tankers in the market despite regular drone and missile strikes. A "Hormuz Shuttle Service" of short-haul tankers provides the backbone, carrying Gulf crude to Fujairah for transfer to other vessels, but there are others as well; TankerTrackers.com counts several hundred ships engaged in various aspects of the trade.
The restoration of Arabian Gulf exports has been done without Iran, which remains cut off by a U.S. Navy blockade. With no sign of progress in peace negotiations, that naval mission is expected to continue. The U.S. Navy flotilla in the Arabian Sea is getting reinforcement soon from the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and her escorts, now under way from Japan to the Mideast, U.S. officials confirmed to Fox News' Liz Friden on Tuesday. The Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group - comprised of amphibs USS Makin Island, USS Anchorage and USS John P. Murtha - is also under way from San Diego to join the task force near the Gulf of Oman. The arrival of more Navy assets could allow the ships on station to rotate out, putting less strain on the overall fleet, or provide more capacity for airstrikes after the midterm elections.
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Despite higher flows out of the Gulf, oil prices remain well above $100 per barrel, reflecting the extreme day rates for VLCCs and Suezmax tankers. The cost of delivering oil out of the Gulf to Asia now exceeds $35 per barrel, creating a market dynamic where transport cost effectively drives the price of crude.
The Trump administration hopes to address this by boosting the availability of tanker tonnage: its plan is to create a path to resale and legitimacy for hundreds of "shadow fleet" tankers operating in sanctioned trades. But market watchers are skeptical whether this plan can scale: shadow fleet tankers are already quite profitable in their current role, and relatively few qualified candidates are available (and insurable), multiple analysts told Bloomberg this week.