The valuation models the firm reaching $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2036 while maintaining a 27.5 percent operating margin and a 9.74 percent cost of capital. Although first-half revenue expanded roughly fourteen-fold year-over-year, third-quarter 2026 expansion decelerated as compute capacity constraints and rival offerings created friction. Furthermore, hundreds of billions of dollars tied up in future compute, lease, and purchase commitments present default risks under the company's BB+ bond rating.
Key points
Achieving the primary valuation benchmark requires capturing dominant market share across…: Achieving the primary valuation benchmark requires capturing dominant market share across an industry projected to exceed $5 trillion.
A severe downside scenario involving compute shortages and $200 billion in 2036 revenue c…: A severe downside scenario involving compute shortages and $200 billion in 2036 revenue could push equity to negative $373 billion.
Under an optimistic trajectory, 2036 revenues could expand to $1.5 trillion with operatin…: Under an optimistic trajectory, 2036 revenues could expand to $1.5 trillion with operating margins rising to 40 percent.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
This figure places the AI firm just below the lower end of the widely discussed $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion IPO pricing range. In his latest blog post, Damodaran stated that Anthropic’s story will continue to evolve and change once it starts trading. “Given AI's presence in the economy and markets, I can guarantee you that it will be a roller coaster.”
Also read | Michael Burry says Anthropic IPO papers show AI industry is 'catastrophically vulnerable'. What the 'Big Short' investor sees
What Anthropic’s IPO papers show
Citing data from Anthropic's recent prospectus filing, the Dean of Valuation noted that the company’s revenue has grown exponentially over the last year, with revenues in the first two quarters of this year about fourteen times as high as the revenues in the first two quarters of the last year. But the sobering news is that revenue growth slowed down in the third quarter of 2026, as OpenAI increased market share, compute capacity acted as a constraint and some enterprises moved to cheaper open source models.
The financial statements in Anthropic's prospectus…
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