Securing a House majority requires winning at least 218 seats, while Senate control hinges on whether Democrats can reach 51 seats or Republicans retain 50 with a tie-breaking vote. Calling the House majority took eight days in both 2022 and 2024, signaling that immediate results are unlikely. Prolonged counts are also expected because California routinely tallies large volumes of mail ballots after Election Day, accounting for half of its vote count in the 2022 midterms. Ranked-choice procedures in Alaska and Maine could further postpone critical Senate determinations.
Key points
Control of the federal legislature depends on closely contested margins across 435 House…: Control of the federal legislature depends on closely contested margins across 435 House races and 35 Senate contests.
Tabulation delays are common as mail-in ballots in states like California take significan…: Tabulation delays are common as mail-in ballots in states like California take significant time to fully process.
Ranked-choice voting tabulations in Alaska and Maine may postpone final Senate determinat…: Ranked-choice voting tabulations in Alaska and Maine may postpone final Senate determinations if candidates fail to win initial majorities.
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Multiple agencies and news channels will call races across all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate contests being held this year. However, the timing of those calls will depend on how close individual races are and how quickly states complete their vote counts.
To secure a majority in the House, a party needs at least 218 seats. Republicans currently have 219 members caucusing with them, just one above the majority threshold when all seats are filled. Two seats are vacant.
The Senate has a different threshold. Democrats need 51 seats to secure a majority, while Republicans can retain control with 50 because Vice President JD Vance can cast a tie-breaking vote. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the chamber.
Past elections offer an indication of how long the counting process can take. In the 2022 midterms, AP declared control of the Senate four days after Election Day, while its call for the House came eight days later.
The 2024 presidential election cycle saw a quicker Senate call, with control determined a day after voting. However,…
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