The election was seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and it looks like Likud will remain the largest party in parliament, says NUS Middle East Institute’s Jean-Loup Samaan.
SINGAPORE: Israelis turned out on Tuesday (Oct 27) in the highest numbers since 1999 to decide who should govern them. But the election reveals a country too fragmented to give a clear answer.
It was the first election since Hamas launched its terrorist attacks on Oct 7, 2023 that killed some 1,200 people in Israel and triggered a series of wars from Gaza to Lebanon and Iran.
Early indications are that the result will be inconclusive, leaving the two main contenders, incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his rival Gadi Eisenkot, in a deadlock. Final results may only be known by the end of this week, but neither camp appears able to secure a 61-seat majority in the 120-member parliament, the Knesset.
Still, based on the latest exit polls (as of 12pm on Wednesday), three takeaways reveal the deeper fault lines in Israel’s politics.
STILL THE LARGEST PARTY
First, Mr Netanyahu still has enough room to claim to be the strongest leader in building a coalition.
The erosion of the Likud, Mr Netanyahu’s party, has been marginal. Going from 32 seats in 2022 to about 27 to 29 projected in this year’s election, Likud is likely to remain the largest party in Israel’s parliament.
This is remarkable, given that the election was expected to play as a referendum on the prime minister – specifically on whether he bore responsibility for the failure to prevent the Oct 7 attacks.
Even though polls in past years suggested that a majority of Israelis held unfavourable views of him, many still prefer his right-wing agenda to the more centrist platform of Mr Eisenkot.
LIMITED DEPARTURE FROM NETANYAHU
The second takeaway is that Mr Eisenkot, like other centrist politicians before him, failed to fully seize the anti-Bibi momentum that initially favoured his candidacy.
A former chief of the Israel Defense Forces, he ran a restrained campaign that had one simple message: Replace Mr Netanyahu.
The message resonated with many. Mr Eisenkot’s political party Yashar (straight in Hebrew) was formed only a year ago yet is on track to become the second-largest party in parliament with an estimated 21 seats.
But the 66-year-old general offered no compelling alternative vision on major security and foreign policies that have preoccupied the country. In fact, both men share similar views on topics such as the wars in Gaza, Iran or Lebanon.
Perhaps one difference was that Mr Eisenkot promised to prosecute the settlers responsible for a rash of attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank, while the Netanyahu government all but tolerated them. Still, Mr Eisenkot also made clear he supported the settlement project, and had no intention of recognising a Palestinian state anytime soon.
ARAB PARTIES EMERGE STRONGER
The third takeaway is that the Arab political parties have made the biggest gains and will be a force to be reckoned with within the Knesset.
Ra’am and the Joint List may increase their number of seats in the Knesset from 10 in 2022 to between 16 and 18 today.
It is a positive sign that Arab citizens of Israel, who account for roughly 21 per cent of the country’s population, participated in the political process and will get credible representation.
However, it also emphasises the deep contradictions in Israel’s politics. Both Mr Netanyahu and Mr Eisenkot have refused to consider Arabs as potential coalition partners.
Following the formal declaration of results, Israel’s President Isaac Herzog will assign one of the candidates the task of forming a government. In doing so, Mr Herzog will have to judge whether Mr Netanyahu or Mr Eisenkot is best able to build a coalition capable of securing a vote of confidence in parliament.
This is necessary for the government to pass laws and its annual budget. Many backroom negotiations will unfold in the process. Campaign promises are likely to be forgotten in the name of pragmatism.
FORMING A GOVERNMENT ACROSS THE DIVIDE
One major unknown of these coming negotiations will be the role played by Arab political parties.
Mr Netanyahu has long used the Arab vote as a bogeyman to mobilise the right-wing Jewish vote. Even as voting was underway, he accused them of trying to “steal the election” in an effort to rally voters.
Mr Eisenkot proved more ambiguous in his position regarding the participation of Arab political parties in a potential coalition, and affirmed that they would have first to make public concessions, including denouncing Hamas as a terrorist organisation.
Under the current circumstances, if he wants to build a workable coalition, he may have no choice but to find an agreement with the Arab political parties. But doing could push his right-leaning partners towards Mr Netanyahu. In a country deeply scarred by Oct 7, many of his own voters might rebel.
Eventually, if neither man can form a credible coalition, the Knesset will be dissolved, and Israelis will have to vote again. This is not unknown to Israelis: Between April 2019 and November 2022, the country held no fewer than five elections due to the failure to secure a stable government.
The 2026 election is a reminder that Israel’s democratic process is still alive. Israelis showed they are eager to have their say but whether the political leaders can bridge those divisions is far less certain.
Jean-Loup Samaan is Senior Research Fellow at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.