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China's factory activity marks third contraction in four months

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Sub-indexes across total new orders, export orders, production, and purchasing activity all fell into contraction territory during October as consumer spending slowed following the National Day break. Property-tied firms suffered significant downturns, highlighted by custom furniture maker Oppein Home posting an 80 percent plunge in third-quarter net profit. Conversely, high-tech sectors maintained solid expansion, which is helping sustain overall economic trajectory toward annual growth targets.

Key points

  • Insufficient domestic demand and waning front-loaded overseas orders are driving broad ma…: Insufficient domestic demand and waning front-loaded overseas orders are driving broad manufacturing downturns.
  • High-tech and AI-linked industries are actively expanding despite persistent weakness in…: High-tech and AI-linked industries are actively expanding despite persistent weakness in property-related businesses.
  • Policymakers expect to meet the annual growth target of 4.5 to 5.0 percent without added…: Policymakers expect to meet the annual growth target of 4.5 to 5.0 percent without added stimulus.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

BEIJING: China's factory activity unexpectedly dropped in October, its third contraction in four months, a government survey showed on Saturday (Oct 31), hurt by soft demand for exports as well as goods at home.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3 from 50.1 in September, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. That missed a forecast for 50.0 from a Reuters poll.

Factory activity weakened as overseas Christmas-related orders, which were front-loaded in September, cooled in October. It was also hurt when consumer spending, which climbed during China's long National Day holiday in the first week of October, fizzled out after, in a return to its long-stagnant state.

"Insufficient demand is increasing downward pressure on the economy," said Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, adding that policymakers should take the problem seriously and step up measures as soon as possible.

Sub-indexes for new orders overall and for new export orders both stayed in contraction territory in October. Production and purchasing activity also slipped into contraction from expansion.

The non-manufacturing…

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