The acute shortfall across Chinese markets is being driven by structural supply bottlenecks rather than an unexpected boom in end-user consumption. Domestic smelter curtailments and reduced overseas deliveries have left fabricators scrambling, with current purchasing largely confined to major cable producers replenishing bare inventories. At the same time, past tariff bets pulled metal toward the United States, leaving local inventories depleted even as London Metal Exchange copper rose 0.4% to $14,067 a ton.
Key points
Physical copper shortages in China stem primarily from smelter curbs and overseas deliver…: Physical copper shortages in China stem primarily from smelter curbs and overseas delivery constraints rather than sudden demand spikes.
Anticipation of potential Trump administration tariffs diverted large volumes of refined…: Anticipation of potential Trump administration tariffs diverted large volumes of refined metal into the United States, exacerbating Asian market tightness.
Spot market activity remains largely restricted to essential inventory replenishment by m…: Spot market activity remains largely restricted to essential inventory replenishment by major cable manufacturers managing depleted raw material reserves.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
Copper buyers in China are scrambling for physical metal, with spot premiums soaring as supplies tighten sharply in the world’s biggest consumer.
The premium for spot copper in Shanghai jumped to 2,100 yuan a ton over futures on Thursday, the highest since 2021, according to Shanghai Metals Market. The surge is the latest sign that immediately available cathode is becoming increasingly scarce as production curbs by Chinese smelters tighten supplies.
The squeeze is also showing up in futures, with Shanghai copper for December trading at a $900-a-ton premium to January, the steepest backwardation since 2022. Meanwhile, the Yangshan premium for imported copper, another gauge of domestic demand, extended its recent surge to a record $210 a ton.
“The persistent shortage is due to production cuts at domestic smelters and limited supplies from overseas such as Africa and Russia,” said Zhou Xiaoou, an analyst at Zijin Tianfeng Futures Co. “Fabricators are buying hand to mouth.”
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