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Chile Pension Funds’ Swap Losses Narrow as Treasuries Rally

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In short

Chilean pension funds saw their mark-to-market losses on foreign interest-rate swaps shrink to $2.9 billion by late October, recovering from $7.7 billion the prior month. This rebound was largely driven by the US 10-year Treasury yield dropping over 30 basis points from an October high near 5.3%. The lower yields bolstered Chile's conservative D and E portfolios, which gained 1.8% and 3.2% respectively during the month. Nevertheless, questions linger over whether this recovery resulted from lower interest rates or from managers unwinding derivative holdings before an early November regulatory deadline.

Key points

  • The domestic pension regulator has launched formal proceedings against all seven asset ma…: The domestic pension regulator has launched formal proceedings against all seven asset managers over potential fiduciary duty breaches.
  • Total portfolio losses across both domestic and foreign institutions dropped to approxima…: Total portfolio losses across both domestic and foreign institutions dropped to approximately $7 billion by October 20.
  • Pension funds face continued financial vulnerability as US Treasury yields edge higher ag…: Pension funds face continued financial vulnerability as US Treasury yields edge higher again in November.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

(Bloomberg) -- Chilean pension funds narrowed their market-value losses on foreign interest-rate swaps in October as a rally in US Treasuries provided some relief to a system under heavy pressure from politicians to reduce risks and boost payments.

The AFPs, as the funds are known, had $2.9 billion in mark-to-market losses on foreign interest-rate swaps with international banks at the end of last month, according to figures released Tuesday by the pension regulator. That was down from $7.7 billion at the end of September.

The improvement offers some respite for the AFPs after they faced a political backlash over large positions built up in US interest-rate derivatives during the past two years, effectively betting that yields would fall. The strategy initially paid off, but gains reversed sharply this year as a global bond selloff sent US yields surging.

In October, however, US Treasuries rallied again, with the 10-year yield falling more than 30 basis points from a peak of about 5.3%, its biggest monthly decline since 2023. Yields have edged back up again so far in November, a move that…

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