Politics1 min read

Can Iran’s new supreme leader make peace from behind the scenes?

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father in March but has avoided public appearances and audio releases due to tracking risks following a wartime strike. He has since restructured the state's decision-making apparatus and held four high-level security, judicial, and military meetings throughout October. During an October 31 briefing, Armed Forces General Staff chief Ali Abdollahi and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi updated him on military readiness across the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman. This internal operational shift occurs alongside delicate international diplomacy, including a Qatari-Pakistani proposal and indirect correspondence with Washington.

Key points

  • Tehran has transitioned from demonstrating the new supreme leader's survival to executing…: Tehran has transitioned from demonstrating the new supreme leader's survival to executing institutional restructuring and active governance.
  • Iran is simultaneously reviewing military readiness in strategic waterways while reviewin…: Iran is simultaneously reviewing military readiness in strategic waterways while reviewing diplomatic proposals from regional and Western counterparts.
  • Vital regional diplomacy has directly informed Khamenei's high-level consultations regard…: Vital regional diplomacy has directly informed Khamenei's high-level consultations regarding security arrangements and the Strait of Hormuz.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Mojtaba Khamenei’s consultations suggest a new system of decision-making is taking shape, but can it deliver a compromise like the 2015 nuclear deal?

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is exercising power without appearing in public or allowing his voice to be heard. Since succeeding his father in March, he has governed through written statements and decrees, while reports of his meetings with senior officials offer a glimpse into how he exercises power.

The meetings announced in May and August appeared intended primarily to reassure Iranians that their new leader was alive and exercising authority. But a series of four meetings announced within 11 days in October, involving the heads of Iran’s parliament, judiciary and national security establishment, as well as senior military commanders, suggests something more: a new system of decision-making taking shape.

The meetings come as Tehran weighs its options between negotiations and renewed confrontation with the United States and Israel. They also invite comparisons with the consultations that preceded the 2015 nuclear agreement. The question is whether Iran’s new leadership is preparing for a similarly consequential decision,…

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