Gold prices fell to Rs 1,44,129 per 10 grams by November 5, 2026, after peaking at Rs 1,76,121 earlier in the year. The early surge was driven by central bank buying and geopolitical tensions, but momentum reversed following Kevin Warsh's nomination as U.S. Federal Reserve chair. Even with the recent retreat, the metal maintained an 11.09% gain between the previous Dhanteras and early November. Future performance hinges largely on macroeconomic signals, including persistent U.S. inflation and ongoing tensions between Iran and the United States.
Key points
Market momentum stalled after the Federal Reserve chair nomination coincided with rate hi…: Market momentum stalled after the Federal Reserve chair nomination coincided with rate hikes, strong dollar valuation, and crude oil surpassing $100.
IBJA President Prithviraj Kothari established a base case price of Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,70…: IBJA President Prithviraj Kothari established a base case price of Rs 1,65,000 to Rs 1,70,000 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange.
Bearish forecasts indicate values could fall to Rs 1,25,000 if U.S. interest rates climb…: Bearish forecasts indicate values could fall to Rs 1,25,000 if U.S. interest rates climb further or if India decides to roll back import duties.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
The 999 gold price on the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) hit a peak of Rs 1,76,121 per 10 gram on January 30, 2026. Since then, the yellow metal price has declined by 18.16% to Rs 1,44,129 as on November 5.
Even though the gold rate is considerably down since its January peak, people invest in gold on Dhanteras with a belief that a purchase on such an auspicious occasion will bring prosperity to their lives.
As the country is set to celebrate Dhanteras on November 6, will the wish of these gold buyers be fulfilled? Can they see gold prices returning to their peaks in the new year?
Gold return from Dhanteras to Dhanteras
Gold prices are volatile, and returns from gold investments can vary in different cycles of Dhanteras.
For example, if we look at the 999-purity gold price of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), the yellow metal has given a return of approximately 11.09% from the previous Dhanteras till November 5.
This is in contrast to the return between Dhanteras of 2024 and 2025,…
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