Finance1 min read

Big tech’s AI binge is sinking the market. Can Santa save it?

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The current downturn stems from aggressive capital expenditures and vague profitability horizons at industry giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon. Complicating matters, tech firms have accumulated an unprecedented $655 billion in new borrowing this year alongside an elevated probability of a December Fed interest rate hike. While major institutions debate the sector's trajectory through conflicting rating calls, the broader S&P 500 continues to lag its prior-year performance.

Key points

  • Heavy enterprise spending on artificial intelligence without guaranteed near-term returns…: Heavy enterprise spending on artificial intelligence without guaranteed near-term returns is actively depressing broader market indices.
  • Fixed-income pressures remain substantial, as investors confront a 75% probability of a F…: Fixed-income pressures remain substantial, as investors confront a 75% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
  • Wall Street brokerages are sharply divided between downgraded risks regarding capital con…: Wall Street brokerages are sharply divided between downgraded risks regarding capital constraints and upgraded expectations for enterprise AI revenue growth.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Wall Street has reached an inflection point on the AI trade, the investment theme that has single-handedly powered all four years of this bull market. Questions about Big Tech’s massive AI spending and its place in the economy are dragging stocks down into the year’s final stretch, when history shows they should be riding high.

Since the Nasdaq Composite hit a record peak just shy of a month ago, on Oct. 6, the index has slumped more than 7.5%—and is dangerously close to drifting into correction territory, defined as a 10% pullback from a previous high.

The PHLX Semiconductor index, Wall Street’s benchmark for the chip stocks fueling the AI buildout, has already suffered a correction and then some. Since its record high in late June, the Sox has tumbled nearly 28% and is technically in a bear market—a more than 20% loss.

And the S&P 500’s technology sector, the benchmark’s heaviest weight, is also in correction territory, closing out Friday with a 11.1% slump from its early October peak.

Three things are behind these astounding losses: mixed earnings from…

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