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Baird downgrades Nvidia on China curbs, AI demand worries

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In short

Baird reduced its rating on the semiconductor giant to "Neutral" and cut its price target to $200 from $500, expecting shares to remain range-bound. Analysts pointed to risks of pre-emptive H300 chip orders being trimmed by 10% to 30%, alongside an anticipated slowdown in artificial intelligence capital expenditure growth to roughly 40% year-on-year in 2027. Multiple major firms, including Morgan Stanley and BofA Global Research, have also lowered targets or dropped the stock from premier lists. Nvidia will formally present its third-quarter financial results after the market close on November 17.

Key points

  • Anticipated U.S. government export controls in China and Southeast Asia present significa…: Anticipated U.S. government export controls in China and Southeast Asia present significant timing and volume risks for hardware orders.
  • Rising leadership uncertainty has increased the perceived likelihood of an outside hire t…: Rising leadership uncertainty has increased the perceived likelihood of an outside hire taking over the chief executive role heading into 2027.
  • Several major investment firms have slashed price targets and removed the chipmaker from…: Several major investment firms have slashed price targets and removed the chipmaker from top recommendation lists following a sharp monthly share drop.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The brokerage downgraded the chip giant to "Neutral" from "Buy" and cut its price target to $200 from $500

Nvidia's shares closed at $168.9 on Tuesday and are on track for their biggest weekly drop since March 2025, with uncertainty over top leadership weighing on the stock

The brokerage added that Nvidia shares are likely to remain range-bound in the near term given the investigation into CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a Chinese businesswoman that is allegedly part of a spying operation

Demand from Southeast Asian data-center operators and China is crucial for the chip company, and any pre-emptive or US government restrictions on exports could weigh on revenues, Baird said

AI hyperscaler capex growth could slow to about 40% year-on-year in 2027, bogged down by supply constraints and early signs of demand softening, it added

Demand for Nvidia's H300 chips outpaces supply; however, due to timing risks, 10-30% of pre-emptive orders could be exposed to potential cuts

Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia from its top pick list after the stock fell more than 25% since being named a top pick…

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