Artificial Intelligence1 min read

Anthropic's growth just flattened (really)

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The company generated $16.8 billion in third-quarter revenue, marking a 45 percent sequential expansion that fell sharply from the 141 percent increase recorded in the previous quarter. Performance leveled off notably between July and September after reaching a $65 billion annualized run-rate mid-summer. Anthropic opted not to provide investors with an annualized revenue metric based on September's final figures during its presentation. Potential headwinds causing the stagnation include computing capacity limits, enterprise budget moderation, seasonality, or competitive pressure from lower-cost Chinese alternatives.

Key points

  • Anthropic withheld an updated annualized revenue figure based on its September performanc…: Anthropic withheld an updated annualized revenue figure based on its September performance during the latest investor briefing.
  • The cooling revenue trajectory suggests broad demand for artificial intelligence services…: The cooling revenue trajectory suggests broad demand for artificial intelligence services could be moderating across enterprise clients.
  • Neocloud operators like CoreWeave face financial pressure after borrowing tens of billion…: Neocloud operators like CoreWeave face financial pressure after borrowing tens of billions of dollars against aggressive AI growth targets.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Anthropic shared high-level Q3 financials with investors yesterday, report the NYT’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, Lauren Hirsch, and Sri Muppidi.

Revenue for Q3 was reportedly $16.8 billion.

At first glance, this number seems astonishing. And, in one sense, it is. It’s another jaw-dropping sequential gain for what is likely the fastest-growing company in history.

But, break the trend down into implied monthly growth, and the picture looks different.

Specifically, it seems Anthropic barely grew from July to September.

Anthropic’s sequential revenue growth in Q3, moreover, was smaller in absolute dollars than its (gobsmacking) growth in Q2.

So, for several possible reasons, Anthropic’s growth has meaningfully slowed.

This is likely another reason why the stocks of “neocloud” providers like CoreWeave are collapsing. CoreWeave, et al, have borrowed tens of billions of dollars on the assumption that demand for AI compute will continue to grow at rates way beyond consensus expectations for years.

Now, not only are interest rates soaring — raising the carrying costs of this debt — the near-term revenue growth for AI services may be flattening.

Analyzing Anthropic’s growth…

Anthropic’s…

Artificial Intelligence