Goldman Sachs anticipates that annualized investment in artificial intelligence hardware and intellectual property will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026 before climbing higher the following year. This trajectory will push overall quarterly U.S. business investment growth to 8 percent in 2027, well above the consensus forecast of 4.2 percent. The aggressive expansion persists even as firms face debt-funded growth and political pushback regarding data-center construction following recent Democratic midterm victories. Furthermore, including semiconductors, these tech investments are projected to lift aggregate gross domestic product growth by 0.6 percentage points.
Key points
Technological capital expenditures will represent nearly 4 percent of the entire United S…: Technological capital expenditures will represent nearly 4 percent of the entire United States economy by the end of 2027.
Regulatory concerns stemming from recent Democratic midterm election victories pose only…: Regulatory concerns stemming from recent Democratic midterm election victories pose only limited downside risks to ongoing data-center investments.
Excluding semiconductors from calculations reduces the anticipated 2027 gross domestic pr…: Excluding semiconductors from calculations reduces the anticipated 2027 gross domestic product boost from artificial intelligence to 0.2 percentage points.
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Nov 12 : Goldman Sachs on Wednesday forecast annualized spending on artificial intelligence-related hardware and intellectual property will climb to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, equivalent to nearly 4 per cent of the US economy.
"AI will remain the dominant driver of business investment growth in 2027," the brokerage said, forecasting spending to exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026.
Here are some details:
• The view comes amid concerns that rising borrowing costs and increased investor scrutiny could curb AI-related capital spending, particularly as companies lean more heavily on debt-funded expansion
• Democrats' victories in the US midterm elections earlier this month sparked concerns over tighter regulation of data-center development, but Goldman Sachs said the outcome poses only limited risks to AI investment
• Goldman estimates AI-related investment will directly boost 2027 capex growth, including semiconductor investment by 5.3 per centage points and US GDP growth by 0.6 per centage points
• "Semiconductor investment is undercounted in the business investment statistics, and most information processing equipment is imported and is thus netted out of GDP," Goldman…
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