To offset these massive future losses, Novartis projects remibrutinib could achieve more than $4 billion in peak multiple sclerosis sales and over $8 billion across several indications. However, Barclays recently trimmed its sales forecast after late-stage clinical data revealed the candidate was less effective at reducing patient relapses than expected. While the drug regulates immune cells instead of depleting them, analysts caution that long-term commercial success will depend on competitive pricing and future clinical trial readouts scheduled for 2028 and 2031.
Key points
Barclays reduced its financial outlook for remibrutinib after late-stage trials indicated…: Barclays reduced its financial outlook for remibrutinib after late-stage trials indicated smaller relapse reductions than previously anticipated.
Novartis is positioning remibrutinib to expand its multiple sclerosis portfolio by treati…: Novartis is positioning remibrutinib to expand its multiple sclerosis portfolio by treating newly diagnosed patients and those switching from oral options.
The company's ambitious four-billion-dollar multiple sclerosis sales target remains uncer…: The company's ambitious four-billion-dollar multiple sclerosis sales target remains uncertain and heavily contingent on pricing and competitive market dynamics.
Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1
"This medicine could be one of our largest medicines in history," Novartis CEO Vas Narasimhan told CNBC on Tuesday, as the Swiss drugmaker backed remibrutinib, its experimental MS medicine, to generate more than $4 billion in peak annual sales.
Days before, Barclays cut its forecast for the drug's peak sales after detailed results from two late-stage trials showed the drug had reduced relapses in MS patients by less than analysts expected.
It highlights a challenge for Novartis as it prepares to outline its long-term growth strategy in mid-November.
The drugmaker reported sales growth this week despite losing key patent protection for blockbuster heart drug Entresto. But Barclays analysts said that the market is already looking to the next patent cliff, with bestsellers Kisqali and Kesimpta facing patent expirations around 2032.
That's "the market's bigger question," Barclays analysts said on Wednesday, noting Kisqali and Kesimpta expiries alone represent $18 billion in peak sales.
Against that backdrop, Novartis has guided for $8 billion-plus in total sales of remibrutinib, including indications other than relapsing MS.
Amit Bar-Or, a multiple sclerosis specialist at the…
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