Finance1 min read

20% crash in 2026! This FMCG stock is on track for its biggest annual drop in 22 years. Should investors be worried?

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The FMCG heavyweight dropped to ₹1,858 per share as high raw material expenses drove a 400-basis-point drop in gross margins to 48%. Despite these cost headwinds, consolidated revenue rose 15% year-on-year to ₹18,070 crore for the September quarter, supported by a 7% expansion in underlying volumes. Operating margins were partly shielded by reduced advertising spending and operational efficiencies. Multiple brokerages, including Nomura and Jefferies, continue to recommend buying the stock on expectations of an improved risk-reward profile.

Key points

  • Severe raw material inflation reduced gross margin to 48%, though cost controls helped li…: Severe raw material inflation reduced gross margin to 48%, though cost controls helped limit the EBITDA margin contraction to 130 basis points.
  • Double-digit volume growth in the Home Care segment supported an overall underlying volum…: Double-digit volume growth in the Home Care segment supported an overall underlying volume expansion of 7% during the September quarter.
  • Major brokerages including Motilal Oswal, Jefferies, and Axis Securities maintain Buy rat…: Major brokerages including Motilal Oswal, Jefferies, and Axis Securities maintain Buy ratings despite the ongoing margin pressures.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

Shares of Hindustan Unilever (HUL) were on track to post their worst annual performance in over two decades, as investors largely stayed away from consumer goods stocks this year amid a challenging sector outlook marked by rising input costs, slowing growth expectations and concerns over consumer demand.

So far in 2026, the stock has lost nearly 20%, falling to ₹1,858 apiece and dragging the company’s market capitalisation below ₹4.5 lakh crore. The stock last witnessed a comparable annual decline in 2004, when it crashed 30%. Since then, it has recorded a double-digit annual loss only once, in 2024.

Reflecting the sustained selling pressure, HUL shares have closed in the red in each of the past five months, with losses widening further in October. The stock briefly touched its lowest level since 2019 earlier this month before witnessing a mild recovery.

The weakness is not limited to HUL. As many as 12 of the 15 constituents in the Nifty FMCG index, including ITC, Godrej Consumer Products, Dabur India, Colgate-Palmolive, Britannia Industries and Nestlé India, have declined by between 20% and 40%…

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