Finance1 min read

$2.5T has been wiped from US stocks

By · Published by Everything Blog

In short

The sell-off highlighted severe strain on tech balance sheets, with Amazon projecting $220 billion in annual capital expenditures despite recording negative $42.4 billion in trailing free cash flow. At the same time, Democratic victories in gubernatorial and congressional races threaten facility timelines following campaigns targeting residential electricity rate hikes. Component manufacturers also suffered from broader tech sector woes, underscored by a 26% drop in Qualcomm handset chip sales as global smartphone shipments hit a 14-year low.

Key points

  • Severe vendor declines demonstrate that infrastructure suppliers are bearing the immediat…: Severe vendor declines demonstrate that infrastructure suppliers are bearing the immediate brunt of artificial intelligence spending worries.
  • Political shifts in key states like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio threaten to stall planned da…: Political shifts in key states like Texas, Georgia, and Ohio threaten to stall planned data center projects over surging electricity rates.
  • Unprecedented artificial intelligence infrastructure budgets are generating deep free cas…: Unprecedented artificial intelligence infrastructure budgets are generating deep free cash flow deficits at leading cloud hyperscalers like Alphabet and Amazon.

Sources checked by our analysis pipeline: 1

The Nasdaq wiped out roughly $2.5 trillion in market cap on Thursday, officially pushing the index into correction territory. If you look at the heatmap above, though, the companies actually signing the massive AI capex checks barely moved. GOOGL is down 2.29%, MSFT is down 3.25%, and AMZN is down 3.55%. Meanwhile, the vendors selling them the hardware, memory, and power gear got crushed: AMD (-14.83%), MU (-14.18%), DELL (-12.88%), and GE Vernova (GEV) on the grid turbine side is down 11.88%.

That divergence makes a lot of sense if you looked at the Q3 cash flow statements last week. Alphabet posted -$9.1B in free cash flow for the quarter, and Amazon’s trailing 12-month FCF is down at -$42.4B while guiding toward $220B in annual capex. The hyperscalers have massive core ad and cloud monopolies that can absorb a capex slowdown or a pivot. Their suppliers don’t. Names like NVDA (-7.53%), AVGO (-8.07%), and semi-cap equipment makers like LRCX (-12.44%) and AMAT (-10.31%) are priced as if gigawatt data center buildouts will compound forever without friction.

Tuesday’s midterm elections basically…

Finance