US President Donald Trump on Thursday ruled out new attacks on Iran until after the November mid-term elections, following several reports that Washington is gearing up for a new round of escalation.
"We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social. "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.”
Trump’s statement came after several news sites, including Axios, which is seen as close to Trump and his aides, reported that the Pentagon was preparing for a resumption of high-intensity strikes on Iran. The Atlantic also reported Trump is weighing attacking Iran before the US midterm elections.
Brent, the international oil benchmark, was trading up 4.5 percent on Thursday, amid the reports and confirmation that Iran had attacked a new vessel in the Gulf.
One tanker was hit on Wednesday off the coast of Qatar in the Gulf, about 500km west of the Strait of Hormuz, and one was attacked off the coast of Oman outside the waterway.
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Direct fighting between the US and Iran has all but subsided, even as the two countries tussle to control the flow of oil and gas through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. On that front, the US appeared to have the upper hand, with energy analytics firm Kpler reporting that oil flows through Hormuz hit almost 90 percent of pre-war levels in late September.
Energy prices remain high, posing a liability for Trump as he heads into the mid-term elections that will determine control of Congress.
In the last month alone, diesel prices have risen 14 percent to around $6 per gallon in the US. Middle Eastern refineries are still not operating at full capacity, and the flow of refined petroleum products through Hormuz is roughly half of pre-war levels.
The US-Israeli attack on Iran has spiralled into a larger regional war, the focal point of which is now Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and its allies are trying to roll back the Houthis after they launched a sweeping offensive down the Red Sea coast last month.
Saudi Arabia backs Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis, which have received arms and training from Iran. This week, the kingdom activates a new joint defence pact with its partners, Turkey and Pakistan.
Middle East Eye was the first to reveal that Turkey would be sending weapons systems, including air defence batteries and troops, to defend the kingdom. Pakistan also told CNN it was sending weapons to help protect Saudi Arabia.
One key question emerging is how deeply Turkey and Pakistan will become involved in the war with the Houthis.
Pakistan bombs the Houthis?
Turkey and Pakistan both want to deepen their ties to Saudi Arabia and demonstrate they can become underwriters of a new regional security architecture, as doubts about the US grow. However, they are wary of becoming enmeshed in a conflict with an ally of Iran perched on an international trade chokepoint.
The US itself has refused to become publicly involved in fighting the Houthis.
The New York Times reported on Thursday that Pakistani warplanes were flying above Yemen, striking Houthi targets. Islamabad quickly denied the story, saying it was only providing defensive support to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia has blamed the Houthis for strikes on the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina. The group denied striking them.
The Houthis also generated sympathy in the wider Arab and Muslim world for attacks on Israel they said were in defence of besieged Palestinians in Gaza after 7 October 2023, when the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel sparked an assault on Gaza. Over 74,000 Palestinians have been killed in what has been called a genocide by the United Nations and genocide scholars.
Regional states from Qatar to Syria and even Somalia have all condemned the Houthis' strikes on Saudi Arabia.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan on Thursday said Saudi Arabia was supporting Yemen's "legitimate government" in a battle against the Houthis.
"But this is a defensive agreement. When a country party to the pact comes under attack, you stand by it in its defence. This is not an offensive agreement. Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory," Fidan said.
Saudi Arabia is launching strikes on the Houthis in support of its Yemeni allies, but is also absorbing intense blows from the group. At least three people were killed on Wednesday after the Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport and King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh.
The Houthis struck Riyadh’s airport a second time on Thursday, with video footage shared on social media revealing at least two drones slamming into the facility. Officials in the region told MEE that at least one Saudi commercial aircraft was severely damaged.
The attacks deal a blow to Saudi Arabia’s image as an international business hub. While Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE were hit the hardest after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Saudi Arabia was relatively spared.
Lufthansa said on Thursday it would cancel all flights to Riyadh until 16 October.
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