The US no longer wants its “grand bargain” with the Arabian Gulf, providing security in exchange for oil, and is “transitioning” to a new approach, in a major shift that is “like raising a teenager”, a senior US official and confidant of President Donald Trump said.
“America as the guarantor to the world, for the last 80 years, it is no longer there,” Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and Trump’s special envoy for Syria and Iraq, said on Tuesday at the Global Security Forum in Doha, Qatar.
Barrack, known for waxing lyrical about the Ottoman Empire and for having condemned the post-World War I partitioning of the Middle East by European colonial powers, said the US “no longer wants to own” the region.
“Conflict and controversy was actually to the western favour. The more off-base the region was, the more [the West] could manipulate fossil fuels for its own benefit. That’s not in existence anymore,” he said.
The Gulf states lobbied the US not to attack Iran alongside Israel earlier this year, but their pleas were rejected by Washington.
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Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain faced thousands of missile and drone strikes from Iran in retaliation against the US-Israeli attack on 28 February.
When asked whether the Gulf states could rely on the US security umbrella established in the region after World War II, Barrack said no.
“In the region, everybody is saying if we have America and we are selling oil and gas in dollars and we buy weapons in dollars and we have bases of Americans… we are going to have free seas, and we are going to have a security guaranty. All of a sudden, that doesn’t happen,” he said.
Barrack said this reassessment in the region was due to the “consequences of one intended mission”, referring to the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Still, Barrack said that the US wanted to readjust its approach to the region, not abandon it. “The bargain is not to own, not to control, but not to leave. We’re not leaving.”
“What’s happening in this administration is not an abandonment. It’s a message for realignment,” he said. “And that message is like raising a teenager. It’s not easy”.
'Kinetic action in Yemen doesn't work'
Barrack also said the US supported regional efforts to replace the old US security framework, such as the Mecca Pact. Saudi Arabia has invoked the joint defence agreement with Pakistan and Turkey for support against the Houthis.
“Everybody's got to be on their own regional alliances,” he said, "which is what’s happening.”
Barrack’s remarks come as the region braces for a potential restart of the war on Iran. Leaders in Qatar and Egypt have both warned in recent weeks that the region could be on the cusp of a new conflict.
Iran has been striking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has maintained its blockade against the country, but kinetic attacks have subsided.
However, Trump raised the stakes of fresh strikes by endorsing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of general elections in Israel this month.
Trump said on Sunday that he wanted Netanyahu to remain in office to help him “finish the job” against Iran “unless they change their ways rapidly”.
The focal point of regional tensions has moved to Yemen. The Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, have launched debilitating strikes on Saudi Arabia’s airports and energy infrastructure.
Yemen’s internationally recognised government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia but riven by internal factions, has failed to mount a successful counter-offensive against the Houthis.
Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies say they are committed to retaking territory from the Houthis, but Barrack cast doubt on the chances of a military victory.
“These kinetic reactions have never worked. It doesn’t work. It’s probably not likely that it’s going to work,” he said, when asked whether Saudi Arabia could succeed against the Houthis.
“The president has been clear that he supports Saudi Arabia, and the backing they need logistically he will supply, but America getting involved in a ground kinetic battle somewhere else sounds fruitless,” he added.
Barrack has become the second high-profile western figure to warn that there is no military option to defeat the Houthis. John Sawers, the former head of MI6, said “the Houthis are here to stay”, when asked about the group at the Doha Global Security Forum earlier this week.
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