Opposition spending against California’s first-of-its-kind wealth tax referendum, known as Proposition 40, has surged past $1 million a day, a report has said, adding that the massive financial push appears to be shifting public opinion as the latest polling data revealing that the proposed measure is losing momentum rapidly as the November 3 election approaches. If passed, Proposition 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on individuals with net worths exceeding $1 billion, assessing their assets and unrealised capital gains. Approximately 90% of the generated revenue would go toward funding public healthcare services to offset federal funding shortfalls.
However, the initiative has triggered resistance from corporate leaders, Silicon Valley tech royalty, and Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, a recent report by Frobes said. Opponents argue that merely advancing the proposal is accelerating an exodus of high-net-worth residents, threatening long-term damage to the state's revenue base and broader economy.
Data shows reversal ahead of November 3 polling day
Recent polling indicates that as opposition advertising intensifies, voter enthusiasm for the ballot measure is eroding sharply. From August to Mid-September, the report claimed, six independent surveys showed California voters leaning toward a “yes” vote, leading by margins ranging from 2% to 10%.
In late September, a survey by the Independent Voter Project showed the momentum had flipped, with the “no” opposition taking a 4-point lead.
Citing a latest poll, the report said that a survey released by the Manhattan Institute shows the “no” vote pulling ahead by a substantial 15-point margin.
Campaign spending data highlights a staggering financial imbalance between the two camps. According to reporting from The Guardian, the opposition effort has assembled more than $340 million, burning through upwards of $1 million per day during the first half of September alone.
Dave Regan, head of California's largest healthcare workers' union, which is the primary sponsor of Proposition 40, told The New York Times Magazine that he expects opposition groups to spend at least $400 million by the November 3 vote.
By contrast, the healthcare workers' union backing the tax has raised $32 million, which is less than 10% of the opposition's total resources.
Top donors funding the fight against Proposition 40
A prominent group of technology founders, venture capitalists, and executives has financed the opposition campaign. The top five individual financial contributors include:
- Sergey Brin: $138 million (Google co-founder; net worth: $259.4 billion)
- John Doerr: $40 million (Kleiner Perkins chairman; net worth: $22.8 billion)
- Eric Schmidt: $35 million (Former Google CEO; net worth: $38.2 billion)
- Patrick Collison: $33 million (Stripe co-founder; net worth: $17.5 billion)
- Vinod Khosla: $12.5 million (Venture capitalist; net worth: $11.4 billion)
Other prominent figures joining the opposition include Google co-founder
Larry Page, Palantir’s Peter Thiel, venture capitalist Michael Moritz, and crypto entrepreneur Chris Larsen.