In the 2022 assembly polls, retained BJP candidates had an 85% strike rate, compared with 77% for those brought in to replace the sitting MLAs. The 2024 Lok Sabha results told a different story: New candidates who replaced sitting MPs won 11 of 16 seats while only 20 of the 46 incumbents won.
The dilemma assumes greater significance after BJP was overtaken by Samajwadi Party as the single-largest party in UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
This has strengthened the case for replacing sitting legislators to tackle potential local anti-incumbency as the party seeks a third consecutive term. There are already several signals of a broader new-face strategy. BJP replaced around 70% of the faces in its UP state committee with new members, as well as changed general secretaries, vice presidents and all six regional presidents.
In the recent Rajya Sabha elections, it also dropped all eight of its sitting MPs and fielded new candidates. The party is drawing on the model used in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Assam, where large-scale replacement of sitting MLAs helped BJP governments overcome anti-incumbency and return to power repeatedly.
UP's own electoral history, however, presents a more nuanced picture. In 2017, BJP dropped 12 of its 47 sitting MLAs, or 25.5%, and all 12 replacement candidates won.
In 2022, it increased the scale, denying tickets to 104, or around 32%, of sitting MLAs. New candidates won 80 of those seats, a 77% strike rate, while 175, or 85%, of the 205 repeated candidates won.
In 2022, BJP won 255 seats in the 403-member assembly. As many as 186 of its MLAs were in the assembly for two or more terms while 69 were first-term legislators.
This makes the multiple term MLAs bloc the most obvious pool for a potential ticket reset.
But replacing entrenched legislators carries risks in a state where caste networks, local influence and personal vote bases remain critical to assembly contests. BJP will have to weigh the gains from removing unpopular incumbents against the possibility of rebellion, fragmentation of caste support and damage to closely fought seats - particularly considering the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where its main opponent SP emerged as the biggest party.
The 2027 contest, therefore, could test whether the BJP's new-face formula that worked better in the 2024 Lok Sabha election could overcome the very different dynamics seen in the 2022 assembly polls.